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来源：经济学人 1.22 （2022）财经
Chain reactions
连锁反应
Just how gummed up are global supply chains?
全球供应链有多混乱呢？
The general public learned far more about supply chains last year than it probably cared to. A host of disruptions to production and shipping interacted with soaring demand for goods to produce bare shelves and rising prices. Although goods have been in short supply, the number of measures tracking supplychain woes has proliferated at an impressive pace in recent months. All paint a picture of historically high levels of disruptions, and an uncertain path ahead.
去年，公众对供应链的了解远远多于他们可能关心的。一系列生产和运输的中断与对货物需求的飙升相互作用，导致货架空空，价格上涨。尽管货物处于紧缺状态，但追踪供应链困境的手段却在最近几个月大幅增长。所有的分析都展现了供应链前所未有的混乱，前路一片不确定。
One gauge is an “ocean timeliness indicator”, published by Flexport, an American logistics firm. This reports how long it takes a shipment to move from the supplier’s warehouse to the departure gate of the destination port, for two big freight routes out of [江城1] China: to Europe and America. Three years ago the journey to Europe took just under 60 days, and that to America just under 50. Travel times then rose steadily after the pandemic struck. But the trends for the two routes have diverged a little in recent months. Shipping times to Europe have fallen from above 110 days down to 108. Transport to America, at 114 days’ total journey time, takes longer than ever.
一个衡量标准是由美国物流公司Flexport发布的 "海运及时性指标"。该指标报告了从供应商的仓库到目的地港口的出发口所需的时间，涉及两条出中国的主要货运路线：到欧洲和美国。三年前，到欧洲的旅程只需要不到60天，而到美国的旅程只需要不到50天。疫情发生后，旅行时间有所增加。但是最近几个月，这两条航线的趋势有所不同。到欧洲的运输时间已经从110天以上下降到108天。到美国的运输总时间为114天，比以往任何时候都长。
A global supplychain pressures index, compiled from a variety of indicators by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, tells much the same story. Before the pandemic the highestever reading of the index (which the researchers have computed back to the 1990s) was in April 2011. Then, troubles associated with an earthquake and tsunami in Japan pushed the index up to 1.7 standard deviations above its longrun average. The measure surged much higher in spring 2020, to 3.9 standard deviations above the mean; last year it rose even further still, reaching 4.4 in October. It has since retreated, but only by a touch, continuing to signal a high level of stress (see chart, righthand panel).
纽约联邦储备银行的经济学家根据各种指标编制的全球供应链压力指数，得出了相同的结论。在疫情之前，该指数的最高指数（研究人员的计算可以追溯到20世纪90年代）是在2011年4月。那时，与日本地震和海啸有关的麻烦将该指数推高到比其长期平均值高1.7个标准差。2020年春季，该指数大幅上升，比平均值高出3.9个标准差；去年，它甚至进一步上升，在10月达到4.4。此后，该指数有所回落，但只是轻微的回落，仍然代表供应链面临较大压力。
Another indicator, maintained by Capital Economics, a consultancy, takes account of both goods and labour shortages across the g7 group of large economies. It also suggests that stresses remained intense in late 2021. Freight rates, for their part, rocketed during the first nine months of 2021, before flattening off in the final quarter of last year. Yet as high rates[江城2] become negotiated into longerduration shipping contracts, elevated costs could persist into 2023 and beyond.
另一个由咨询公司Capital Economics建构的指标，该指标考虑到了整个G7大经济体集团面临的货物和劳动力短缺问题。它也表明，在2021年底，供应链压力仍然很大。就运费而言，在2021年的前九个月里，运费急剧上升，然后在去年最后一个季度趋于平缓。然而，随着高费率被纳入更长期限的航运合同之中，高成本可能持续到2023年及以后。
Whether and when matters improve depends on the course that both the virus and the global economic recovery now take. The appearance of the Omicron variant in parts of China could lead to lockdowns and further disruptions at ports. In America, a record number of covid19 cases has meant that fewer longshoremen and truck drivers are in work. Hopes are dimming that a pause in production, associated with China’s new year holiday in early February, might allow ports to work through existing backlogs.
情况是否以及何时改善，取决于病毒存在的时间和全球经济复苏所需时间。中国部分地区出现的Omicron变体可能导致港口封锁和进一步中断。在美国，创纪录的covid19病例数量意味着码头工人和卡车司机的工作人数减少。中国农历新年所带来的停产，可能使港口能够解决现有的积压问题的希望变得渺茫。
Respite could come instead from cooling demand in the rich world, particularly in America, which in 2021 displayed a voracious appetite for all manner of goods. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, a bank, have constructed an indicator of supplychain stress that looks at both supply and demand conditions. Their measure suggests that the latter are mainly responsible for the easing of pressures since late 2021. Trade growth has decelerated, for instance, thanks to reduced demand for both consumer and capital goods.
短暂的休息可能来自发达世界的需求降温，尤其是美国，在2021年，美国对各种商品的需求可谓疯狂。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）银行的分析师构建了一个供应链压力指标，该指标同时考察了供需状况。他们的分析表明，需求是自2021年底以来压力缓解的主要原因。例如，由于对消费品和资本货物的需求减少，贸易增长已经减速。
Flexport predicts that, although Americans’ demand for goods relative to their appetite for services will remain unusually high in 2022, the imbalance should become less pronounced in the months ahead than it was over the past year. If people start to hear a little less about supplychain snarls, their own shifting shopping habits may explain why.
Flexport预测，尽管美国人对商品的需求（相对于他们对服务的渴望）在2022年仍将异常高涨，但这种不平衡在未来几个月应该不会像过去一年那么明显了。如果人们开始较少听到关于供应链堵塞的消息，他们自己转变的购物习惯可能会是原因。
[江城1]来自；离开
[江城2]高运费
